Ten major future development trends of new energy vehicles, future development trends of electric vehicles

21/10/2021
1. Spiral production and sales
At present, China's new energy vehicle production and sales scale is leading the world. In the past three years, it has become the world's largest country in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, with cumulative production and sales exceeding 1.8 million vehicles. Among them, in 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 794,000 and 777,000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 53.8% and 53.3% respectively, and the market share was 2.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous year .
Although doubts are inevitable, with policy support, the general trend of new energy vehicles is set and will only continue to move forward. From the data point of view, China's new energy vehicle market demand is spiraling upward, with 500,000 vehicles in 2017 and 800,000 vehicles in 2018, and it is expected to reach more than 1 million vehicles in 2019, and it is planned to be 2 million vehicles in 2020. The small production and sales target of 1 million is of iconic significance for China's new energy automobile industry. If it is realized, it means that the new energy automobile industry chain can start to support a scale of one million.
2. The new energy automobile industry is changing
The pattern of the new energy automobile industry is taking shape. Traditional car companies such as GAC, BAIC, BYD, and Geely are leading the way. At the same time , new car-making forces represented by Weilai, Weimar, and Xiaopeng are embracing capital and technology to enter decisively, taking a completely different path. Traditional car companies are accelerating their transformation and deployment . In 2019, BYD's global coverage of new energy vehicles will expand from 200 to 400 cities, with the main promotion of micro electric vehicles below 100,000 yuan. In addition, BYD will add 30,000 charging facilities next year.
BAIC New Energy released the "Optimus Prime Plan". It plans to expand in Beijing, Xiamen, Guangzhou and other cities from 2019 to 2022 to establish public travel operation platforms and cascade energy storage operation and maintenance platforms in various cities, and build 1,000 power replacement stations. 100,000 vehicles in operation.
Geely will develop a variety of electric models, hybrid models and plug-in hybrid models, and plans to launch more than 5 new energy models in 2019.
New car-making forces have financed to build a factory , and Weilai Automobile has raised 14 billion yuan in financing and is preparing to build a Shanghai production base. NIO has hired eight banks, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, to prepare for its listing in the United States within this year. It is reported that the size of the IPO is approximately US$1 billion to US$2 billion. As for the factory, Weilai Automobile has already begun preparations to build a production base in Jiading District, Shanghai, with a planned land of about 800 acres.
Weimar Motors plans to gradually introduce more than one new car to the market starting in 2019. The first mass-produced car of Weimar Motors will be launched in the middle of this year. The new car will be equipped with Baidu's Apollo system.
The new energy automobile industry is changing. Whether it is the accelerated transformation of traditional car companies or the financing and construction of factories by new car manufacturers, it will promote the new energy automobile industry to new prosperity.
3. share a bright future car, hidden risks
After experiencing the prosperity and winter of shared bicycles, the advantages and hidden dangers of sharing are self-evident. At present, most of the time-sharing cars on the market are new energy vehicles. Although users are attracted by borrowing and returning and free disposal, the number of charging piles does not match the number of shared cars, and the lack of car return points leads to the efficiency of industry operations. Low, lack of convenience for car sharing.
Even so, Internet giants such as Mobike, Didi, Meituan, and traditional car manufacturers such as BAIC, SAIC, Shouqi, and Geely have entered the new energy shared car industry. It can be said that the independent operation group that relies on capital and the travel service pathfinder group that relies on vehicle companies are currently the two main forces.
With the continuous expansion of the scale of shared car operations and the expansion of operating areas, the operating difficulty and pressure of shared cars continue to increase. The industry standard operation needs to be strengthened, such as the improvement of insurance, the development of personalized plans for enterprises, or the mandatory purchase of operational-level businesses With insurance, only when users have no worries can the future prospects be promising in the long run.
4. Commercial vehicles took the lead on the road
There are two forms of human transportation: the flow of life and the flow of commodities. In the field of new energy vehicles, commercial vehicles are expected to be the first to hit the road.
Bus electrification has been going on for many years, and the effective market for new energy buses is now close to saturation. Taxi and logistics vehicles, as areas of government procurement and urban traffic control, are expected to usher in a new round of electrification.
As we all know, the recognized way to solve personal travel in big cities is to reduce private cars and vigorously develop public transportation systems. In the same way, the most effective solution to the travel of goods is also to create a "cargo bus system."
To solve the inherent shortcomings such as battery life, charging, and one-time loading, the "cargo delivery" system is perfect, and a large number of self-owned vehicles of logistics companies are no longer necessary. An orderly, urban cargo capacity system that reduces idleness and waste, thus forming a new round of new energy boom.
5. Supporting industries and gradually improve
During the two sessions, Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, publicly stated: "The charging infrastructure is still a shortcoming of our development."
Although the new energy vehicle industry has begun to take shape and the industrial chain is relatively complete, with the continuous growth of the number of new energy vehicles, the contradiction of insufficient supply of charging infrastructure has intensified, and the overall construction scale has been seriously lagging behind.
The data shows that as of the end of 2018, China has 450,000 charging piles of various types, with a vehicle-to- pile ratio of about 3.8:1, which is still a long way from the national plan of 1:1. Charging technology is the key to the development of electric vehicles. In the future, the charging trend of electric vehicles will be a combination of two methods: "daily slow charging of private AC charging piles" and "public fast charging".
It is expected that the next step is to accelerate the construction of charging infrastructure, encourage wireless charging, smart charging, and high-power charging technology innovation and industrialization, and support the construction and operation of hydrogen refueling stations.
6. With the combination of artificial intelligence, progress toward unmanned
The scene of being hacked and paralyzed by traffic in "Fast and Furious 8" is no longer science fiction. Artificial intelligence + new energy = future cars. The Internet of Vehicles + new energy will completely change the way of travel. It is no longer far away to drive a car while eating hot pot.
To this end, industry insiders suggest to accelerate the study and release of operational policies to lay a legal foundation for accelerating the industrialization of autonomous vehicles at the national level ; strengthen the prevention of huge risks caused by hacked cars and control of key data; accelerate the deployment of autonomous vehicles Operate, promote the planning and construction of intelligent road infrastructure, and accelerate the transformation of a new urban traffic environment for autonomous vehicles.
It is conceivable that in the future, an unmanned car powered by electricity or solar energy or other clean fuels and controlled by artificial intelligence will not only have the attributes of "friends", chat with you, and perceive your various emotions; it will also be your exclusive servant , "Run errands" for you to buy coffee and pick up people at the airport.
7. New energy technology route with Chinese characteristics
New energy vehicles include: hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), pure electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell vehicles (FCEV), hydrogen engine vehicles, and other new energy vehicles such as gas vehicles, alcohol ether vehicles, and solar vehicles.
At present, the pure electric strategy has achieved initial results, but the drawbacks have also begun to appear. Therefore, the technical advantages of fuel cells, plug-in, and extended programs as technical supplements in certain application fields will receive more policy attention and support.
Focusing on the future, we will focus on breakthroughs in core technologies for key components such as power batteries and fuel cell stacks with high specific power and durability. Distributed renewable energy will become the main energy source for power generation, and intelligent charging will trigger a huge change in the energy structure.
8. Battery recycling system gradually improve
At present, there are many problems in the recycling and utilization of power batteries for new energy vehicles in China: 1. The recycling laws and regulations are not yet perfect; 2. The recycling system is not yet complete; 3. The level of recycling technology and technology needs to be improved; 4. The cost of recycling is high, It is difficult to make a profit.
But at the same time, the new energy vehicle power battery recycling system is accelerating, and the "New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Recycling Pilot Implementation Plan" is completed, which will systematically sort out and stipulate the standardization of power battery structure design, connection methods, process technology, and integrated installation , And at the same time strengthen the formulation of corresponding laws and regulations for the recycling, transportation, and storage of used power batteries, and further implement the power battery coding system and traceability system.
At the same time, the recycling of new energy vehicle batteries will be regulated in the form of subsidies. New energy vehicle power battery recycling will gradually be regulated, providing new growth momentum for the development of new energy vehicles.
9. Low-speed electric vehicles comeback
Previously, relying on the support of subsidy policies, the pure electric A0 and A00 market with low price and license plate advantages have formed a certain impact on the low-speed car market and harvested a large number of low-speed car users. However, due to the adjustment of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2018, the battery life Compulsory upgrade of mileage, vehicle costs are expected to increase significantly, and some models that rely too much on subsidies will be withdrawn sadly.
At the same time, low-speed electric vehicles are expected to make a comeback due to the advantages of not relying on subsidies and temporarily not needing to be licensed. Third- and fourth-tier cities with relatively loose traffic management policies will usher in a new round of rapid growth, occupying half of the country.
Low-speed electric vehicles have the ability to replace fuel vehicles of the same level, but they lack technical standards and standardized management. Virtual battery life, battery attenuation, and no after-sales service for small and medium-sized enterprises are also outstanding problems. Although they occupy third- and fourth-tier cities, low-speed electric vehicles If you want to truly win the recognition of consumer groups and have broader development, you still need to increase investment in after-sales service.
10. The channel model innovation
Various sales promotion models for new energy vehicles are emerging one after another, including direct sales, distribution, operations, etc. With the online and offline integration of automotive channels and services, the new retail model based on e-commerce has become a new outlet.
But for different user groups, the channel model is different. Some analysts pointed out that users in the first- and second-tier markets are relatively concentrated and generally have experience in car purchases, and the model of direct experience stores is more recognized ; while users in third- and fourth-tier cities are relatively scattered, and many first-time car purchases, the traditional 4S shop model is trusted higher.
In addition, some vehicle and charging facility operators are also exploring the way of selling vehicles by providing potential users with vehicles or charging services, thus forming a series of the entire industry chain.